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As prediction markets offer contracts in more and more areas, are they starting to encroach on the role that opinion polls currently serve in politics?
Pre-election polls are often referenced in the build-up to major elections, offering a flavor of the results that might be on the way. However, every political commentator will be quick to say they are not predictions – and indeed they are often proved wrong when the results actually roll in.
In both the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections, polls underestimated the support for Donald Trump in key battleground states. While there was some improvement in accuracy in the 2024 election, with most major polls estimating that it would be a close run between Kamala Harris and Trump, the majority were leaning more towards Harris than Trump.
Enter: prediction markets
By comparison, prediction markets that were offering political contracts in the run-up to the election were offering more accurate odds. For example, Polymarket offered 60/40 odds on the Trump/Harris voting split, which, while overstating Trump’s Popular Vote margin, was impressively close when it comes to the Electoral College result.

Trump’s odds are up 2.5% after Kamala Harris’ Fox News interview.
He now has a 24% lead. pic.twitter.com/7YFOFzwrfu
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 17, 2024

Could prediction markets therefore provide a more accurate snapshot of public mood and intentions? Prediction markets like Polymarket certainly do need to base their data and odds on a wealth of information to ensure accuracy and tempting bets – but that doesn’t mean they’re infallible.

“If anything, we have reason to believe that participants in prediction markets are somewhat atypical as, for example, they all would seem to enjoy at least this one form of gambling.” Michael Montgomery, political scientist and former US diplomat

“The short answer is maybe yes, maybe no,” Michael Montgomery, political scientist and former US diplomat, told Readwrite.
“Participants in prediction markets are entirely self-selected. As a result, we have no reason to believe they constitute an adequate sample of any larger group – such as voters – for which we might want to make nuanced predictions of future behavior.”
Fans of prediction markets often argue that incentives, liquidity, and the “wisdom of crowds” help them outperform traditional polls. When people have money at stake, they tend to pay closer attention, react quickly to new information, and correct bad assumptions.
In active markets, all those individual judgments get distilled into a single price reflecting the crowd’s collective expectation. It’s not foolproof, but it helps explain why prediction markets sometimes edge out polls.
For opinion polls, on the other hand, pollsters for presidential elections, as one example, take deliberate care to poll a range of adults within voting age, spanning different regions of the country. The goal is to source data from a varied cross-section of the country. The same cannot truly be said for prediction markets.
“If anything, we have reason to believe that participants in prediction markets are somewhat atypical as, for example, they all would seem to enjoy at least this one form of gambling,” noted Montgomery. “At least from a classic social science perspective,  prediction markets don’t seem to have much to recommend them.”
Research comparing prediction markets and political polls shows that both tend to move in the same direction, but markets typically react faster to new information. The study from a student at the University of Arizona found that prediction markets adjusted immediately to debates and primary results, while polls, which are updated more slowly and shaped by question wording and sampling decisions, took longer to reflect those shifts.
Both methods ultimately identified the winner of the 2020 Democratic nomination, though prediction markets did so earlier and by larger margins. The study also notes that markets carry their own quirks, such as traders clustering around certain “reference prices,” which can distort accuracy. In practice, polls offered structured snapshots of voter sentiment, while prediction markets acted as real-time aggregators of scattered insight, giving each a different role in political forecasting.
Potential for abuse
A recent example of a playful comment from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong exposed another issue: the potential to abuse prediction markets by the players the contracts center on. Armstrong made a quip about prediction markets taking bets on what terms he would say during the company’s quarterly earnings call, before quickly rattling them off.
While the comment was clearly made in fun, it did show how easy it would be to manipulate prediction markets results. If a CEO could do it, couldn’t a major political player too?

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia just referenced the polymarket about him wearing a suit & tie.
Simulation confirmed?pic.twitter.com/jPHJpDkzXK
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 19, 2025

Low-liquidity prediction markets are also much easier to sway. If it takes only a small amount of money to move prices, one well-timed trade or even a pointed public comment from a political figure can nudge the odds in a certain direction. In those moments, the market isn’t really showing what people believe will happen. It’s showing what a few motivated players want it to look like.
You would hope that the stakes of a US presidential election would be enough to not encourage candidates to manipulate the results just to win a prediction market contract, but it’s feasible that smaller elections could tempt people to pull out of races or otherwise manipulate results for financial gain.
Where prediction markets fit alongside traditional political polls
That’s not to say that there’s no space for prediction markets to play a role moving forward, however. Media outlets increasingly cite market odds to show public opinion, and the accuracy of Polymarket’s odds ahead of the 2025 US presidential election suggests that there are some ways that prediction markets can succeed where opinion polls do not.
“What we may be seeing is prediction markets functioning in the manner of an informal ‘big data’ application that aggregates the predictions of tens of thousands of observers with different perspectives and methods and then spits out a single prediction,” explained Montgomery.
Put simply, political commentators and onlookers cannot use prediction markets to definitively predict election results – but the same can be said for opinion polls. Instead, perhaps there’s a future where both tools can be used for insightful analysis in the run-up to major elections.
Featured image: Pexels
The post Could prediction markets replace political polls? ‘Maybe yes, maybe no’ appeared first on ReadWrite.

Women’s soccer is becoming hugely popular, with fans breaking records in viewership and attendance, but unlike sponsors and investors, sportsbooks have yet to fully follow.
As the industry continues to prove of interest to many, it’s providing sportsbook operators with the opportunity to thrive in a growing market, but are they slowly turning their attention to the sport? Or leaving it behind? The betting industry may be lagging behind fans and sponsors.
In the sporting world, men’s soccer has long dominated in many countries around the world, but this growth could provide the chance for operators to accelerate their investment into the women’s sport market. It’s now a question of whether companies will evolve with the interest or if the sole dominance of the men’s industry will prevail.
These shifts are challenging sportsbooks to rethink how they approach a rapidly maturing market.
Women’s soccer is quickly growing in popularity
Women’s soccer is growing at a very fast pace, with more people than ever before tuning in to watch games on TV and support in person.
In a report by SPORTFIVE, it was found that the most prevalent reason behind fans starting to follow women’s soccer is due to an interest in the national team. The recent tournaments have proven to be successful in capturing attention, with the recent UEFA Women’s EURO’s being marked as the best-attended Women’s European Championship ever.
A total of 29 of 31 matches sold out and a record-breaking number of tickets were sold ahead of the tournament beginning. A total of over 160 nationalities were represented amongst the overall ticket holders, with the event being the most viewed and engaged with Women’s Euro ever on UEFA social media, even ahead of the final.
While men’s UEFA tournaments still pull in massive global audiences, women’s competitions are catching up fast, with year-over-year growth ranging from 25% to more than 400% depending on the event. Take the Women’s EURO 2025, for example: it drew record-breaking total viewership, and social media engagement jumped 55% during the group stage alone compared to the previous tournament.
The business behind women’s soccer is growing
As the interest in women’s soccer has evidently increased over the last few years, the business behind it has been rising too.
It was only in July this year when the first woman to break the £1 million ($1.35 million) mark for a transfer took place, with Canadian forward Olivia Smith making the high-profile move from Liverpool to Arsenal.

“It’s a privilege and an honour. Everything that the club has accomplished is so massive, and for me to now be a part of that, I’m very excited.”
Watch Olivia Smith’s very first Arsenal interview
— Arsenal Women (@ArsenalWFC) July 17, 2025

While the transfers for male players go for significantly more, this move signified a shift within women’s soccer as more money is starting to be put behind the teams.
Just a few months later, in September, the record was broken again as Grace Geyoro moved from Paris Saint-Germain to London City Lionesses in a $1.9 million deal.

The best sign for a big opportunity? When the experts say: “Don’t do it.”
When I told Serena I was starting a women’s soccer team, she pushed back. She knew how hard it would be. She’d lived it.
That kind of resistance confirms I’m on the edge of something about to be HUGE. pic.twitter.com/OVphRqqPL4
— Alexis Ohanian (@alexisohanian) June 9, 2025

In the US, women’s sport in general is growing exponentially. Revenue is projected to reach $2.35 billion in 2025, a 25% year-over-year increase, according to Deloitte.
Alexis Ohanian, founding control owner of Angel City FC, told the Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh that this surge stems from rising team valuations.
Investments in women’s sports were long “suppressed,” he said, and while the sector is still “a ways from [being] overheated,” valuations and revenues are now “whipsaw[ing] back quickly.”
He pointed to the National Women’s Soccer League’s (NWSL) record $110 million Denver expansion fee as evidence that fees have jumped “more than 100x” in just a few years. “That sounds like a tech story,” Ohanian said. “It’s a women’s sports story.”
Ohanian predicted that women’s sports will see billion-dollar teams within five years. For comparison, every NFL and NBA team is already valued at over $5 billion, and more than a dozen MLB franchises are worth more than $4 billion.
Are there commercial opportunities for women’s soccer players?
In a 2022 UEFA report, ‘The Business Case for Women’s Football,’ it was estimated that there would be a sixfold increase in commercial value over the following decade, potentially reaching an annual value of €686 million ($794 million) by 2033. It was also estimated that club sponsorship could rise to €295 million ($342 million) in that time.
As the industry grows, and more fans are sitting down to watch games (either on TV or in person,) the possible profitability from the business side has been an aspect investors and sponsors are taking note of.
Betclic, a French-based online sports betting operator, announced its partnership with the Arkema Première Ligue (APL) this summer. The company is already a partner of the French Women’s National Teams, with Betclic confirming its commitment to becoming a strong ally of women’s soccer.
Other non-gambling companies have committed to large investments or sponsorships in women’s soccer too, including the UK-based bank Barclays which has a multi-year sponsorship deal as the title sponsor of the Barclays Women’s Super League and Barclays Women’s Championship.
What challenges do sportsbooks face in women’s soccer?
Compared to men’s soccer, women’s leagues don’t have as much historical data or comprehensive statistics. This will change in time, especially as investment within the sport grows.
Another SPORTFIVE report which looked at data from 2023-24 found that the number of sponsorships in women’s professional sports increased by more than 22% YoY across leagues, teams and athletes from 2023 to 2024. When more money is injected into a sport, it allows teams to invest in technology that could provide greater data opportunities.
In men’s soccer, there have been decades of record-keeping and intelligent match-tracking systems that have been deployed which is of use to sportsbooks as they can use this data when creating offerings. In women’s soccer, however, some leagues still lack full data coverage which makes it difficult for operators to have all of the information they need.
It’s through rising interest and investment that infrastructure to capture this data correctly can be applied which is now what is being seen with the larger and more prominent leagues.
Another major challenge for sportsbooks is the changing demographics of women’s soccer. According to a Women’s Sport audience report from 2023, the sport offers stronger relative reach into female audiences than men’s soccer.
This change-up could be of use to many brands, as women generally have higher purchasing power, with women described by some reports as now being the ones to drive the world economy.
However, gambling operators haven’t always seen a huge interest from this demographic. A January 2025 Statista survey conducted amongst adults in the United States shows that 30 percent of male respondents said they had an online sports betting account.
Meanwhile, only 15% of women said they had an account. With this in mind, can sportsbook operators begin to entice a greater demographic to keep up with the growing pace of women’s soccer?
According to a chapter in the book, “Gambling and Sports in a Global Age,” the gender gap in sports betting highlights a real challenge for operators, and the research shows that women bettors often engage with gambling differently.
Young women’s betting is more strongly shaped by peer influence and sports fandom, and they experience higher rates of relationship-related harms than women who gamble on other products, suggesting distinct behavioral patterns and vulnerabilities.
Women’s sports fans also engage through socially driven, digitally mediated environments where gambling is increasingly normalized, yet targeting this growing demographic raises ethical issues, as the report notes that women’s gambling has historically been “suppressed” and is now rising through social pressures and marketing rather than through informed choice.
The dynamics show that attracting women bettors is not simply a commercial opportunity but a responsibility that requires careful, harm-aware design rather than aggressive demographic expansion.
However, if operators do begin to recognize the momentum that is growing, women’s soccer could become a substantial contributor that broadens the betting market. As fan engagement accelerates and investment from major brands pours in, operators who overlook this space risk ceding an entire emerging market to more forward-thinking competitors.
The data gaps will close, the viewership will continue to climb, and the commercial ecosystem will only strengthen. The question now is whether sportsbooks choose to grow with the sport or remain anchored to the old model. Those who delay may soon find that the most dynamic opportunity in modern football has already passed them by.
Featured Image: South_agency from Getty Images Signature via Canva
The post How is the rise of women’s soccer impacting sportsbooks? appeared first on ReadWrite.

The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) posted a speech that covers updates to regulations in the country. This comes as the UK Budget, which happens once a year, increased taxes on certain forms of gambling.
One of these changes is that Remote Gaming Duty (tax) will increase from 21% to 40% on April 1, 2026. “Remote” encompasses “gaming over the internet, telephone, by television, radio, or any other electronic communications or other technology for facilitating communication.”
In a speech given at the Institute of Licensing (IoL) Annual Conference 2025, director of policy Ian Angus went over what the UKGC had discovered in the last year.
It was found through a survey that 38% would gamble remotely, but only 29% now do it in-store. However, removing lottery figures, this drops to 16% online and 18% in-store.
Angus highlights the work that local authorities have done to help curb gambling problems in their area. Sheffield City Council worked for two years within the court system to block a premises license it deemed unfit for the city.
More changes incoming for gambling in the UK
However, changes aren’t over just yet. The DCMS (Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport) is currently taking a look at land-based gambling.
Gaming machines that come under “Category D”, like crane games and coin pushers, are being eyed for adjustments to stakes and prizes. It’s also looking to try to make a “clearer distinction” between “adult gaming centers”. This comes as duties on bingo winnings have been completely abolished.
Explaining the multiple-pronged approach, Angus said:
“One of the strengths of the gambling regulatory model in Great Britain… is the co-regulatory model: Gambling Commission nationally, holding the board rooms to account and with local authorities on the high street.
“I’ve shared a link to our online resources for you there so please do if you haven’t already, have a read on what we share with you online.”
The post UK Gambling Commission announces updates to regulations post-Budget appeared first on ReadWrite.

The gaming company INTRALOT has announced its financial results for the nine-month period, with revenue being 2.9% less than the previous year. The CEO has also spoken out about the revised gaming taxes in the UK, following the budget announcement.
Just this week, the UK government shared the Autumn Budget, which confirmed several changes to gambling taxes. The main change is the increase in remote gaming duty, which is to rise from 21 to 40 per cent, with this beginning in April 2026.
A creation of a new 25% general betting duty for online gambling has been created too, but this won’t come into action until April 2027.
Now that the gambling industry is aware of the government’s stance, companies have started to publicly state their responses. For example, Flutter, which is the gambling giant behind brands like FanDuel, BetFair, Sky Betting & Gaming, and more, acknowledged the “very significant impact on the overall market.”
The UK and Ireland CEO of Flutter, Kevin Harrington, noted that the impact on the industry as a whole will only hamper safer gambling.
Tax increase impact will delay INTRALOT’s growth plan by a year
In INTRALOT’s financial report, the CEO Robeson Reeves described the remote gaming duty increase as being “higher than anticipated,” but says the company is going “to follow the aggressive mitigation scenarios.”
“We still intend to deliver growth in the wagers accepted which combined with generosity reductions, marketing reductions and accelerated synergies will limit the tax increase impact and will only delay our growth plan by a year. We would therefore revise our 2026 EBITDA guidance in the range of €420-440m,” the CEO said.
Moving further into the report, the company shared that its consolidated revenues came to
€242.5m in the nine-month period which is a 2.9% decline compared to the nine-months in 2024. The company, however, says this is “broadly stable on a constant currency basis.”
It was also just a month ago that INTRALOT announced it had completed the acquisition of Bally’s International Interactive Business for €2.7 Billion, with new directors having been decided upon earlier in November.
Featured Image: Via Intralot Facebook post
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