The World Cup 2026 draw was held at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C., on December 5, 2025, officially setting the stage and soccer betting favorites for FIFA’s biggest tournament to date.
The draw marked the men’s World Cup’s first return to the United States since the iconic 1994 edition and the new expanded format.
For the first time in its history, the competition will feature 48 teams, spread across 12 groups, followed by an extended knockout phase.
Europe’s elite and South America’s traditional powerhouses continue to dominate early projections, even as the expanded format introduces a larger suite of games and possible secondary group favorites, causing an upset.
World Cup 2026 format designed for established betting favorites
The 2026 World Cup format features more teams and more fixtures. Three teams advancing from most groups and an additional knockout round absorbing the expanded field show that the risk of an early exit for elite nations isn’t on the cards.
In practical terms, it makes a repeat of shock eliminations, such as France’s group-stage exit in 2002, far less likely.
Squad rotation, depth, and recovery may prove as decisive as star quality in the 2026 tournament, as fixture congestion is expected to rival or exceed that of Russia 2018.
There has been a notable ticket backlash since the draw settled and the markets reacted to the biggest games on show. Fan groups forced FIFA to rethink pricing as a result of the first negative shot across the bow for tournament organisers.
@FIFAcom’s #WorldCup ticket prices are a betrayal to the most dedicated fans. At least $6900 to support your team from the first match to the final – nearly 5 times more than in Qatar.
FSE calls for the immediate halt to ticket sales.
Statement: https://t.co/AgEdqsfrox pic.twitter.com/2Yq5z5GIDZ
— Football Supporters Europe (@FansEurope) December 11, 2025
The big players: World Cup 2026 betting favorites remain familiar
Across outright markets, Spain continues to lead the field as tournament favorites, typically priced around 5/1, with some books drifting slightly into the 6/1–7/1 range.
They are followed closely by Brazil and Argentina, both of which are the tournament’s established South American giants. France and England round out the top tier, with the latter generally trading at around 13/2, placing them second only to Spain in several UK-facing books.
Hosts face long odds
The United States is the strongest of the three hosts in outright pricing, typically trading at 40/1 to 60/1. Mexico, co-hosting once again after 1970 and 1986, sits slightly behind at around 50/1 to 66/1.
Canada remains the long shot of the trio, with odds in the 80/1 to 100/1 range reflecting the team’s battling spirit in arguably their biggest tournament showing.
Deciphering the group draw
Group A: Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Playoff D
Markets lean toward Mexico to top the group, driven primarily by host advantage rather than belief in a deep run. South Korea is profiled as the primary challenger, while the introduction of a European playoff winner, such as Denmark or Czechia, would significantly tighten pricing.
Group B: Canada, Playoff A, Qatar, Switzerland
This group remains unresolved. Switzerland are the strongest confirmed side, but if Italy emerge from Playoff A, they would become clear favorites despite Canada’s home support, and you can never rule out the Azzuri at a World Cup.
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland
Brazil are heavy favorites to win the group, supported by outright odds around 8/1–10/1. Morocco have some incredibly talented individuals, but nothing rivals the Seleção’s quality.
Group D: United States, Paraguay, Australia, Playoff C
The U.S. are favoured to lead the group, but Paraguay and Australia are a physical test for the hosts, while a strong Playoff C side, such as Türkiye, would quickly compress prices.
Group E: Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador
Germany is expected to top the group despite recent inconsistencies in its squad makeup and the retirement of the old guard, who have brought so much national success. Their outright odds typically range from 12/1 to 16/1, with Ecuador and the Ivory Coast priced behind them.
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Playoff B, Tunisia
Markets favour the Netherlands, with Japan viewed as the primary threat. A strong Playoff B entrant like Ukraine, Sweden, or Poland could make this one of the tighter groups.
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Belgium remains the clear market pick as a side that consistently churns out complete players at the top levels of European knockout soccer.
Group H: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay
Spain is expected to dominate the group and remain tournament favorites at around 5/1, with a clear gap to Uruguay, who will likely finish second.
Group I: France, Senegal, Playoff Bolivia/Iraq/Suriname, Norway
France dominates group expectations, supported by outright odds around 7/1–8/1. Senegal and Norway are dangerous but clearly second-tier in pricing the group.
Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
Defending champions Argentina are overwhelming favorites to top the group, with outright odds around 8/1–9/1.
Group K: Portugal, Playoff 1, Uzbekistan, Colombia
Portugal is favoured to win the group, and this could be Cristiano Ronaldo’s last dance at the World Cup. Colombia is the primary challenger, but compared to a golden generation featuring a possible Ballon d’Or winner and PSG’s Vitinha, they don’t look likely to cause an upset.
Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
England is expected to lead the group, though Croatia keep prices tighter due to their previous showings at the tournament and a solid spine of Champions League-level talent.
The tournament kicks off with a repeat of the 2010 competition’s opening match of Mexico and South Africa. The drama and betting opportunities will unfold across the world at Mexico City Stadium on 11 June, 2026.
Featured image: FIFA
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