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A new poll from the prediction market operator Kalshi shows that most Americans want access to prediction markets and would rather see them overseen by the federal government instead of state gambling regulators.
The timing isn’t a coincidence. The results come at a time when gaming commissions in several states are debating whether these markets should fall under their authority, a decision that could change how the platforms work.
The survey was run by Axis Research from September 18 to 23, 2025, and included 1,219 voters from across the country. According to the memo cited by Kalshi, “Even if I don’t participate in these types of markets, I believe all Americans should have access and the option to decide for themselves,” reportedly earned agreement from 89% of respondents. The company says the results show broad public support for keeping prediction markets available.
Kalshi-backed poll chart showing most demographic groups favor federal regulators over state gaming commissions for overseeing financial and prediction market activities. Credit: Kalshi
According to the study, 70% of people in the survey said Americans should be able to invest in specific outcomes, including elections and agricultural futures. The memo says support crosses party lines, with approval from 75% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats.
The poll also shows that most respondents see prediction markets as financial tools rather than gambling as 89% said buying stocks, mutual funds, and commodities contracts is a financial investment rather than a form of gambling. When asked who should regulate prediction markets, 79% preferred federal regulators, while only 21% chose state gaming commissions.
Kalshi’s Head of Corporate Development, Sara Slane, said the results make a strong case for keeping prediction markets under federal oversight through the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. “Americans want access to prediction markets reliably regulated by financial experts in the federal government, not 50 different ill-equipped state gaming commissions,” she said.
“American voters want the freedom to choose how to invest their own money without state-level bureaucrats interfering.” Slane added that “the current federal regulatory structure is best equipped to oversee this financial activity, not an unpredictable state regulatory patchwork,” and said the company supports a system in which “every American, no matter where they live, should be able to make financial decisions for themselves without state casino regulators getting in the way.”
The poll also found that many people are worried about what could happen if regulation shifts to the states. The memo says 82% agreed that having 50 different state rules would create a messy patchwork that puts extra burdens on consumers and makes things harder for middle and lower income households. While 83% said inconsistent state rules would cause confusion, and another 83% agreed that a state by state approach could end up with looser rules that open the door to corruption.
Context and potential bias of Kalshi poll
Since the data was released by Kalshi, a platform that would clearly benefit from staying under federal oversight, some observers may see the poll’s framing as supporting the company’s own goals.
The press release points out public agreement with statements that describe state regulation as confusing, corrupt, or not well equipped, while presenting federal regulators as competent and fair. When questions are framed this way, the results can end up reinforcing the sponsor’s preferred regulatory outcome.
Regulatory dispute
Adding to the context, Kalshi is also dealing with legal fights in several states over whether its contracts should be treated as sports bets that fall under state gambling rules rather than as federally regulated event contracts.
States such as Nevada and New Jersey have issued cease and desist orders, and Kalshi has responded by suing the regulators and arguing that its contracts fall entirely under the CFTC’s authority. At least five state lawsuits claim that Kalshi’s products are actually illegal sports wagers dressed up as financial derivatives.
Featured image: Kalshi
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The CEO of the UK’s Betting and Gaming Council has outlined a warning that £8.4 billion ($11.1 billion) in bets could go to the black market if the proposed tax hike goes ahead.
On the heels of its warning about the potential impact on jobs at the end of last month, the CEO of the Betting and Gaming Council, Grainne Hurst, shared an open warning on November 7 to the Chancellor and the UK government about concern around the proposed gambling tax hike in the Autumn Budget.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has hinted that UK gambling firms could expect to see big tax humps on sports betting, online or in betting shops, excluding horse racing, with rates rising from 15% to as high as 30%, while online slot taxes could climb from 20% to 50%.
Industry leaders have been quick to rally against the proposed plans, with one of the UK’s largest bookmakers, Betfred, warning that such a move could result in all its high-street shops closing down. Now, Hurst is also adding her voice to the criticism, warning that further tax increases would not only directly impact UK businesses but also put consumers at risk. This comes after Hurst referred to those at risk of gambling harms as a small minority while giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee last month.
“Further tax increases on the regulated online sector risk undermining consumer protections by pushing players towards the unsafe, unregulated black market, while reducing Treasury revenues and cutting the vital funding our members provide to British sport, including horse racing, football, rugby league, darts, and snooker,” she wrote in the article published by the BGC.  “Independent analysis by EY shows such proposals could put over 40,000 jobs at risk, divert £8.4 billion in stakes to the black market, and wipe £3.1 billion from the sector’s contribution to the UK economy.”
Hurst addressed many of the concerns around supporting gambling businesses, underlining how BGC members invest their profits into protective measures to reduce gambling-related harm. As with other UK businesses, the BGC also underlined how they contribute to the UK economy through taxes already, while also providing hundreds of thousands of jobs.
UK gambling business already pay their ‘fair share’ amid tax hike plans
In terms of the current level of taxation on UK gambling firms, Hurst argued that companies are already “already highly taxed” and “highly regulated.” Currently, all online betting and gaming in Britain is taxed on a ‘point of consumption’ basis, so any bet placed by a UK customer is taxed at the point of sale, no matter where the operator is based.
In real numbers, BGC members contribute £6.8 billion ($9 billion) to the economy, generate £4 billion in tax, and support 109,000 jobs, according to data cited by Hurst.
“Much is at stake in the Chancellor’s Budget,” she concluded. “Get it wrong, and it’s not just jobs and growth that will suffer, it’s safer gambling itself. To protect consumers and support a safer, stronger industry, we must keep gamblers playing within the regulated market.”
Featured image: Canva
The post UK BGC chief warns gambling tax hike could push $11B to black market appeared first on ReadWrite.

A new bill from Assemblyman Clyde Vanel would give lawmakers the power and framework to regulate prediction markets in the state of New York.
Vanel’s Bill A.B. 9251 was revealed on Friday (November 7) with the official purpose “to amend the general business law, in relation to prediction markets”. This comes amid rising concerns in New York and beyond that prediction markets are a way to sidestep state gambling laws, particularly around sports betting.
Specifically, the bill would require far more regulation for prediction markets than they’ve faced so far in New York, banning them from offering contracts on sporting events, banning market makers, and requiring restrictions regarding age, advertising, and credit-based products.

JUST IN: New York bill would severely curtail prediction markets by banning PMs on sporting events, ban market makers, require RG safeguards, and raise minimum age to 21. Would empower AG to impose $50K/violation and $1m/day civil penalties and obtain 2x disgorgement of profits. pic.twitter.com/FLCJSdgcNH
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) November 8, 2025

Those safeguards echo those already in place for traditional gambling companies, highlighting an evolving perspective on prediction markets being an alternative form of gambling. The bill would also empower the New York Attorney General to enforce penalties on prediction markets that don’t adhere to the proposed regulations. That could range up to a $50,000 fine per violation and $1 million per day in civil penalties in certain suggested circumstances.
New York versus prediction markets in practice
A case in point of New York’s legal battles with prediction markets is recent events with Kalshi, with the prediction market suing the New York Gaming Commission just last month. Although online sports betting is allowed in New York, prediction markets with sporting contracts like Kalshi are seen by some as running unlicensed sports betting in a legal gray area.
Legal expert Daniel Wallach pointed out that the bill would need New York Senator Joseph Addabbo Jr.’s backing to have a shot. Writing on X, he added: “Since he’s not a sponsor, too soon to tell. Legislative session doesn’t even begin until January.” Addabbo Jr. has been vocal about his opposition against illegal casinos in the state.
That hasn’t stopped Kalshi and other competitors leaping from strength to strength in terms of market shares and valuations. For its part, Kalshi has argued in court that its event-based contracts fall under the CFTC’s jurisdiction, rather than any state gaming laws, including New York’s. At the time of writing, Kalshi has already filed federal lawsuits in Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio to block state enforcement actions.
Featured image: Wikimedia Commons, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
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Four arrests have been made by the Honolulu Police Department between two raids as part of an illegal gambling investigation.
Honolulu officers from the city’s Narcotics/Vice Division made four arrests after carrying out search warrants on two locations. The first took place on November 4 on Wanini Street, where arrest records show that three men were arrested just after 6pm.
Chenjie Jyang, 27, was arrested for promoting gambling in the second degree and possession of a gambling device, while 40-year-old Eric J Foster and a 49-year-old Nuu Tagaolo were arrested on separate criminal contempt of court warrants.
Electronic gaming machines seized during a Honolulu police raid on an alleged illegal gambling operation in Pearl City. Credit: Honolulu Police Department
During the raid, Honolulu officers also seized 14 gambling machines and more than $4,000 in cash. A second raid was carried out the following day on Kamehameha Highway, where two more illegal gambling rooms were uncovered with 34 gambling machines and over $9,000 in cash split between the two.
A patron at the establishment was arrested for criminal contempt of court and two arrest warrants, but no further members of the suspected gambling ring were arrested at that time.
Honolulu punishments for illegal gambling
In Honolulu, illegal gambling is taken seriously, with Jyang at risk of facing both prison time and hefty fines if convicted. Promoting gambling in the second degree is a class C felony in Hawaii, which could see him given five years imprisonment and a fine of up to $10,000. His second charge, possession of a gambling device, is also illegal but classified as a misdemeanor. That means he could face up to a year imprisonment and a fine of up to $2,000.

HPD Seizes 48 Machines and Makes Arrests in Gambling Busts
Read more here: https://t.co/1NrrXT2vfH
To report illegal gambling, call the Narcotics/Vice 24-hour hotline at 808-723-3933 or use the online form: https://t.co/YmaRluhyZV. pic.twitter.com/hpts9Guigv
— Honolulu Police (@honolulupolice) November 7, 2025

The potential sentences for the other charges of criminal contempt of court depend on the original crime, but could see the other arrested men face both jail time and financial penalties.
Hawaii has recently cracked down on illegal backroom gambling, with another bust taking place just last month.
Featured image: Honolulu Police Department
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The Social Gaming Leadership Alliance (SGLA) has recategorized online sweepstakes games amid controversy around the gaming sector.
A blog written by SGLA Managing Director Sean Ostrow has launched “Social Plus”, a new term for online sweepstakes games. The rebranding is a clear pushback to critiques of the sector coming from virtually all sides, ranging from state government in Minnesota to Google’s own terminology around such games.
Ostrow highlighted “responsible innovation, player protections and integrity in our growing sub-industry” in a definite response to criticisms of online sweepstakes games, after Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison branded sweepstakes casinos and similar sites as “unlawful gambling”.
“Let’s face it, ‘online social games with sweepstakes promotions’ is a mouthful,” wrote Ostrow. “Social Plus gives us a bite-sized term that can positively describe online social games with sweepstakes promotions in an understandable and easy-to-share way. Social games and entertainment are the core of what we do.
“But the ‘Plus’ is more than just the opportunity to win prizes, it’s the higher standard of consumer protection and player safety that SGLA partners hold themselves to.”
The rest of the blog post leans into the social aspects of the game, while also underlining every way that SGLA safeguard players, such as age restrictions and responsible gameplay features. Ostrow also takes thinly veiled aim at “those in adjacent industries who prefer to spread misinformation and outright falsehoods to further their own interests.
“SGLA partners have always put consumer protections first, and we remain committed to advocating for state regulatory and taxation frameworks that will benefit players, communities and the industry,” he added.
The obstacles faced by the SGLA and sweepstakes games
Gaming boards across the US are laying groundwork for how to further regulate sweepstakes casinos, including the aforementioned critiques in Minnesota and the biggest battle of all underway in California, with AB 831 moving gradually closer to shutting them down state-wide.
The SGLA is drawing a line in the sand with its new definition, hoping to highlight how it deems sweepstakes casino games as separate from more traditional gambling avenues.
ReadWrite has reached out to VGW, an SGLA member, for comment.
Featured image: Pexels
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